December 31st 2011 UFC 41

Alistair Overeem and Brock Lesnar are two heavyweight fighters, built like something out of a superhero comic book, that will surely put forth a smashing duel to close out the year. Overeem replaced Theodore Emilianco as the most sought heavyweight fighter outside of the UFC, and the former Strike Force fighter in his UFC debut will try to spoil Lesnar’s welcome back party. Lesnar, a former champ, is coming off his second bout of diverticulitis. The following is my prediction breakdown of the fight.

Wrestling

You’d have a tough time finding too many heavyweights in mixed martial arts (MMA) with the sort of wrestling credentials and skills Brock Lesnar possesses. If he’s determined to take an opponent to the mat, there’s not much most fighters can do to stop that.

Overeem has shown solid take down defense and he looked great doing so in his last victory over Fabrizio Werdum. But make no mistake, Werdum’s wrestling level when compared to Lesnar’s is worlds apart.

Lesnar is going to charge forward with some fast and powerful shots and Overeem will have to bring his A-game when it comes to take down defense that night. It will definitely be tough to keep Lesnar’s takedowns at bay during the whole fight, but it is not totally impossible. The wrestling and counter-wrestling dimension of this fight will be a highly interesting one to observe and I give the edge to Lesnar in the wrestling department.

Striking

Overeem is supremely muscular and a monstrosity of a fighter, but what is really scary is that he is able to strike at such a highly proficient level. Overeem is a terror on the feet and can knockout fighters with both hands, as well as come to them hard with kicks and knees. Everything he throws has a good chance to either KO his opponent.

Lesnar has power in his hands and a solid reach as well, but his striking will be geared toward using punches to set up the shot. He could surprise Overeem with some strikes as Overeem will be anticipating Lesnar to shoot in for takedowns fast and furiously in this fight.

For the most part, however, Lesnar will not play with fire and try to go head to head with Overeem. The vast majority of heavyweight MMA world would try to take Overeem down, Lesnar will be no different, and I give the edge to Overeem.

Ground Game

If this fight hits the mat, it will likely be with Lesnar on top. From this position, Lesnar is going to be a handful to deal with as his lunchbox sized fist will rain down and potentially do a whole lot of damage in a little bit of time. Still, Lesnar showed a very nifty arm triangle choke against Shane Carwin, so never really can be sure what he might pull out of his toolkit.

However, Overeem is more than a 12-year veteran and has 19 victories via submission. He’s such a killer on the feet that many of us have forgotten that he actually has more submission victories (19) than knockouts (14). Overeem can catch an opponent with a rear naked choke, keylock or armbar. And his bread and butter submission move is the guillotine. He is the only man to ever tap out Vitor Belfort, and he caught the Brazilian phenom with that submission. Expect some guillotine attempts in this fight because Lesnar will shoot in multiple times.

Overeem will have an edge with submissions but Lesnar’s hard ground and pound could counteract that. And let’s not forget the huge amount of mass he will be putting on Overeem on the mat. The two skillsets will likely even out the affair on the mat.

Cardio

This fight is scheduled for 5 rounds, as are all main events in the UFC now, even if not a title fight. Yet, it seems hard to imagine that this will go the distance. Both are such explosive and powerful athletes that the volume and force in every technique lends itself to someone going down and out before time elapses. If the fight does progress, it will be interesting to see if one fighter fades, however, both are naturally gifted and trained hard so that’s not probable. Cardio is not likely going to be an issue in this one.

The Result

Not everyone likes Brock Lesnar, however, everyone seems to enjoy a great comeback story. As a result, many are rooting for him to return from his second bout of diverticulitis with a victory over Overeem.

On the other side of the coin, then there are those who have backed Overeem for a long time and are ecstatic he will finally have the chance to show off his talent in the UFC’s octagon.

This fight could really go either way, and the deciding factors will likely come down to wrestling and striking. To get the victory, Lesnar is going to have to continually take down Overeem. On the feet, Overeem has so many tools and too much power. Nobody is too keen about getting tagged in the face during a fight, especially by the immense heavyweights in the UFC. That includes Lesnar, who has occasionally that he can be thrown off his gameplan in a major way when he is on the wrong side of a stand up exchange.

Overeem is going to be coming after Lesnar with big strikes in this one and more than likely is going to nail him with some powerful punches. But let’s be fair. Lesnar can definitely take a huge amount of punishment as he showed against Shane Carwin, but the Dutch heavyweight has a killer instinct to go with his power that should allow him to earn a stoppage somewhere within the first 10 minutes of action. I think Overeem will be the projected winner via TKO of UFC 41’s main event.